February 06, 2004
It is all doom and gloom from this Newsweek article:
I am in favor of taking action to protect the environment, but I am against drastic action to stop an "imminent" threat which I do not believe exists.
There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production– with serious political implications for just about
every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now.
At least this article is willing to admit that the science of climate change is based on a limited set of data:
“Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.”
Still, they are confident enough in their predictions to urge political action. The fate of the entire world hangs in the balance because of the potential we face as the earth begins to cool:
A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.
Global cooling? Oh, did I neglect to mention that this article is dated April 28, 1975? Sorry. It is a bit dated, because we all know that Global Warming is the trend of the future. Who knows what those guys were thinking, way back in 1975.
Everyone knows what is really going on is Global Warming! Even the EPA understands this threat:
According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
If that fails to strike fear in your heart, no problem. Here is more science for you to digest:
Global mean surface temperatures have increased 0.5-1.0°F since the late 19th century. The 20th century's 10 warmest years all occurred in the last 15 years of the century. Of these, 1998 was the warmest year on record. The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean have decreased. Globally, sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased throughout much of the United States.
Which direction is the climate moving? Higher, lower or might it be cyclical? Both sides place the blame on the environment mangling humans, but that always raised a funny question in the back of my mind. If humans are responsible for climate change in the 20th & 21st centuries...then who gets credit for the climate change which caused the great Ice Age, or perhaps the one which ended it?
A nice dose of reality can be found here from GlobalWarming.com:
- According to Accu-Weather, the world’s leading commercial forecaster, "Global air temperatures as measured by land-based weather stations show an increase of about 0.45 degrees Celsius over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation...[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase."
- Satellite data indicate a slight cooling in the climate in the last 18 years. These satellites use advanced technology and are not subject to the "heat island" effect around major cities that alters ground-based thermometers.
- Projections of future climate changes are uncertain. Although some computer models predict warming in the next century, these models are very limited. The effects of cloud formations, precipitation, the role of the oceans, or the sun, are still not well known and often inadequately represented in the climate models --- although all play a major role in determining our climate. Scientists who work on these models are quick to point out that they are far from perfect representations of reality, and are probably not advanced enough for direct use in policy implementation. Interestingly, as the computer climate models have become more sophisticated in recent years, the predicted increase in temperature has been lowered.
