October 19, 2004
With their hard-fought 3-2 lead in the NLCS, Houston Astros' manager Phil Garner has a very important decision to make: Who to pitch in game 6.
Pete Munro pitched 4 2/3 innings in game two, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits. He is not a pitcher who strikes fear in the hearts of the Cardinal batters, but he did a decent job in his first post-season outing.
Roger Clemens is simply Roger Clemens. No other titles or adjectives are necessary. However, he pitched on Saturday (game 3) and threw 116 pitches. In the prior series, he went on short rest against Atlanta and pitched decently (5 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs, 87 pitches thrown) but left 4 innings for the Braves to dine on Houston's tasty middle relief.
The prevailing argument against pitching on 3 days rest is history: Since 1999, pitchers have been a combined 7-20 in the postseason when pitching on short rest (not including 2004). The Astros pitched Clemens on short rest against the Braves and lost; but they also pitched Roy Oswalt on short rest in the do-or-die game 5 and won.
Granted, game 7 is something best avoided. Yet, I believe a fresh Pete Munro can deliver the same 5-6 quality innings that can be expected from a tired Roger Clemens. Excluding Brad Lidge, the Houston bullpen has pitched a single inning over the course of the last three games. They may be suspect, but at least they are a fresh suspect.
If Munro pitches and the Cardinals pull out the win, then there is still a rested Roger Clemens ready to take the mound for game 7. The upside does not end there. With a Munro victory on Wednesday (not terribly unlikely), the pitching rotation is set up and ready to go for the World Series: Clemens, Oswalt, Backe, Munro.
What is Garner going to do? My gut tells me that he is going to go with Clemens. Which is disappointing because I'm convinced that Munro should the one holding the ball tomorrow night.
UPDATE: Garner has decided to put the ball in the hand of Munro. Even if they fail to capture the pennant, I believe this is the right decision.



