NCAA Tournament Upsets since '85
Matchup	Number
11 over 6	21
12 over 5	26
13 over 4	16
14 over 3	13
15 over 2	4
16 over 1	0

Per Andy Katz.

This year's 12 v. 5 matchups are:

• UW-Milwaukee (24-5) v. Alabama (24-7)
• George Washington (22-7) v. Georgia Tech (19-11)
• New Mexico (26-6) v. Villanova (22-7)
• Old Dominion (28-5) v. Michigan State (22-6)

If there is going to a 12 seed victory this year, my guess would be that it would come from either UW-Milwaukee or Old Dominion.