November 03, 2004
I held on until about 4 am last night, waiting for either Bush to speak or for them to dip one of the 3 remaining states in the red paint. The daily routine started all over again at 7, so today will be something like a horror movie: "The Zombie King - Writing Questionable Code to Manage Your Healthcare."
At least I'm a happy zombie. I keep telling myself Kerry has to see the writing on the wall, but I'm not sure even a reprise of "Mene , Mene , Tekel , Parsin" would be enough to bring him to the point of concession.
If you are a Kerry supporter and you think you still have a shot in Ohio, I feel pretty bad for you. Florida, 2000 was close – razor wire close. Photo-finish close. Ohio is not close at all. Bush leads by roughly 133,000 votes. I highly recommend a quick dose of reality. Bitter medicine indeed, but it is best taken on an empty stomach - one free of bile and bitterness.
Not convinced yet? Take a close look at the electoral college and the popular vote. Take note of the House and Senate numbers, especially in South Dakota. It is high time to retire the "Count Every Vote!" mantra and move on to a better one. I would suggest "Back to the old drawing board".
For Kerry to actually win, two things have to happen: First, every single one of the 135,000 provisional ballot has to pass muster. Unfortunately, the election officials at the polling places already tried to validate the registration information for each of these. Elimination of just 1 out of every 65 of these ballots (1.5%) mathematically eliminates Kerry in Ohio.
Second: If the first improbable requirement were to somehow happen, then Kerry needs 99.26% of these ballots to vote for him – to secure a tie. Statewide, the race went 51-49. Even in the most Democratic precincts, Kerry only won by a 2-1 margin. He would have to win these provisional ballots by a 135-1 margin.
In the immortal words of Porky Pig: "Th'-th'-th'-th'-th'-th'-that's All, Folks!" (Now that would make a pretty effective concession speech; it is short, direct and to the point.)



